Is good beginning half done? : Measuring the impacts of non-regular initial employment on future employment prospects in Japan

Abstract

Using data from Japanese General Social Surveys (JGSS), this study examines the effects of non-regular initial employment status on future employment prospects. In order to deal with the potential endogeneity of initial employment status, empirical analyses use bivariate probit models as well as univariate probit models. However I found almost no evidence that the univariate probit models were subject to endogeneity bias. The empirical results indicate that getting non-regular jobs at the year of leaving school reduces significantly the probability of obtaining regular full-time job at present. I also implemented several sensitivity tests, and the finding were relatively stable across several specifications.